Multi-Family Developer Sentiment Showed Mixed Results in Q3

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing showed mixed results year-over-year in the third quarter of 2024, according to results from the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  The MMS produces two separate indices: the Multifamily Production Index (MPI) had a reading of 40, an increase of two points year-over-year, while the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) had a reading of 75, down seven points year-over-year.

While demand for rental apartments remains strong enough to support relatively high occupancy rates in existing projects, multifamily builders and developers continue to face many significant obstacles on new projects such as higher construction costs, the cost and access to financing, and the availability of land and regulations.  NAHB forecasts multifamily construction to remain weak for another year as the market works through a substantial number of units under construction, before beginning to move back to long-term trends toward the end of 2025.

Multifamily Production Index (MPI)

The MPI is a weighted average of four key market segments: three in the built-for-rent market (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise, and subsidized) and the built-for-sale (or condominium) market.  The survey asks multifamily builders to rate the current conditions as “good”, “fair”, or “poor” for multifamily starts in markets where they are active.  The index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates that more respondents report conditions as good rather than poor.

Two of the four components experienced year-over-year increases: the component measuring subsidized units rose seven points to 46 and garden/low-rise units increased three points to 48. As for the other two, mid/high-rise units remained at 28 while built-for-sale units posted a three-point decline to 29.  However, all four MPI components were below the break-even point of 50 (Figure 1).

Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI)

The MOI is a weighted average of the three built-for-rent market segments (garden/low-rise, mid/high-rise and subsidized).  The survey asks multifamily builders to rate the current conditions for occupancy of existing rental apartments, in markets where they are active, as “good”, “fair”, or “poor”.  Similar in nature to the MPI, the index and all its components are scaled so that a number above 50 indicates more respondents report that occupancy is good than report it as poor. 

All three components for the MOI experienced year-over-year declines.  The component measuring mid/high-rise units dropped eight points to 66, garden/low-rise units fell seven points to 77, and subsidized units decreased three points to 86.  Nevertheless, all three MOI components were above the break-even point of 50 (Figure 2).

The MMS was re-designed last year to produce results that are easier to interpret and consistent with the proven format of other NAHB industry sentiment surveys.  Until there is enough data to seasonally adjust the series, changes in the MMS indices should only be evaluated on a year-over-year basis.

Please visit NAHB’s MMS web page for the full report.