Builder Confidence Reaches Highest Level in 13 Months

The continuing factors of solid demand and low existing inventory pushed builder confidence up in July, even as the industry continues to grapple with rising mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and limited lot availability.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in July had a one-point gain to 56, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the seventh straight month that builder confidence has increased and marks the highest level since June of last year.

“The lack of resale inventory means prospective home buyers who have not been priced out of the market continue to seek out new construction in greater numbers,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Alabama. “At the same time, builders are troubled over rising mortgage rates approaching 7% and continue to grapple with supply-side challenges, including ongoing scarcity of electrical transformer equipment and growing concerns about lot availability.”

“Although builders continue to remain cautiously optimistic about market conditions, the quarter-point rise in mortgage rates over the past month is a stark reminder of the stop and start process the market will experience as the Federal Reserve nears the end of the ongoing tightening cycle,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Given that shelter inflation accounts for roughly 40% of the Consumer Price Index, Dietz added that the best way to ease this largest source of inflationary pressure is to build additional for-rent and for-sale housing. “There’s been some commentary linking gains for housing construction with increased concerns for additional inflation, but this has the economics backwards,” he said. “More housing supply is good news for future shelter inflation readings in the market. Furthermore, higher interest rates increase the cost of financing for building homes and developing lots.”

The July HMI survey also revealed that, despite elevated interest rates, builders’ use of sales incentives has declined, as the market has firmed and resale inventory options remain limited. Only 22% of builders reported cutting prices in July, down from 25% in June and 27% in May.

HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at Housing Economics PLUS (formerly housingeconomics.com).